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Paul Ehrlich’s Advice To Climate Modelers And Other Soothsayers

An important morsel of wisdom has surfaced in Tom Turner’s (June 2009?) interview-profile of mythical Paul Ehrlich (“The Vindication of a Public Scholar Forty Years After The Population Bomb Ignited Controversy – Paul Ehrlich Continues to Stir Debate“):

So does Ehrlich have any regrets? Things he’d have done differently? “I wish I’d taken more math in high school and college. That would have been useful.” And if he were writing The Population Bomb now, he’d be more careful about predictions

  1. Luke Warmer
    2009/10/12 at 08:08

    I agree with you generally – if you only allow those who made the right prediction/ forecast to speak then there is a clear bias and the false creation of expertise. It’s a bit like the credit crunch – we’re applauding one or two who supposedly called it, rather than recognising that almost everyone else didn’t, which is the interesting bit.

    But I don’t think Ehrlich sees his predictions as being wrong from the link:
    “In retrospect, Ehrlich feels that The Population Bomb was ‘way too optimistic.’ “

  2. willnitschke
    2009/10/09 at 09:04

    Paul Ehrlich can do a great service to humanity by remaining silent.

    • 2009/10/09 at 09:12

      Don’t you see anything useful in somebody this able to make wrong predictions?

      • Jean Demesure
        2009/11/27 at 14:40

        Sure he should keep speaking and serving as an “useful idiot”. But Ehrlich’s toxicity on minds far outweights his usefulness.
        He is a precursor of post-modern global scares (cooling, warming, pesticides, GMO, water…) and a burrier of progress and science.
        Seeing him winning honor and prizes which Simmon would far more deserve makes me sick.

  1. 2011/03/27 at 18:53

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