HadCRUT4…not what it pretends to be!

Ungracious loser James Annan couldn’t wait posting about the new all-singing all-dancing HadCRUT4 dataset, showing “that reports of the death of global warming have been somewhat exaggerated“.

It’s really really hard to avoid laughing when adjustments come out of thin air but anyway…let’s consider HadCRUT4 less of a joke for a moment.

Since temperatures go up by including the upper Arctic, it is obvious that the rest of the world, and especially the inhabited regions, have not warmed as expected.

And a 5C increase in an area where the average is -20C is _not_ the same thing as a 5C increase where the average is +10C. The former is inconsequential, the latter a change in all seasons.

So HadCRUT4 simply confirms things are going as predicted only in faraway places where there are few measurements and nothing is really changing anyway.

If this doesn’t kill global warming, it certainly helps putting it in the right place.

The CRU…CRU…CRU…el Destiny Of Climatology

Twenty-four hours later, we can be pretty sure that of “smoking guns” in the leaked CRU documents there are none. Everyone can read that information any way they please, as evidence of a global conspiracy or demonstration that climate science is solid and honest.

Whatever…now there’s a little bit more people aware that Science is done by humans, with their preferences and dislikes, their personal beliefs, and capable to use all the tricks of “power politics” to isolate opponents and to support friends. At the end of the day, the problem is not much in scientists that have an “ideology of science”. There’s plenty of it in history, from the controversy about the wave-particle nature of light to the patriotic debates about who invented calculus.

The problem is with scientists whose ideology involves stifling debate and censoring those who do not follow orthodoxy.

Let’s just hope there will be less of that…especially because the alternative is the piling up of yet more revelations, transforming it all in some kind of “climate tabloid journalism”.

Hello Tapuz Users

There’s some traffic coming here from the Tapuz forum in Israel. Among the topics of conversation, my “Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)” blog.

As my knowledge of the Hebrew language is limited to “ken” (“yes”), “lo” (“no”) and “meshuga” (“fool” – please don’t ask!!!), details on what is being said will be very appreciated…

Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

This is the fifth and final posting in a series analyzing the information that can be obtained from the available HadCRUT data up to December 2007.

In summary: the world does appear to have warmed (but by the same token, it has cooled considerably during the year 2007). There are strong indications that it has been a very much hemispheric phenomenon, with little seasonality and hence minimal if any contribution from CO2. Likely culprits are therefore hemispheric-wide effects, such as those caused by the Sun and land use.

=====

Note that the HadCRUT data has just been updated to January 2008, with the following anomalies:

Land NH: 0.058 (coldest since 1989; 3rd coldest since 1983)
Land SH: 0.058 (suspiciously identical to NH’s; coldest since 1986)
Land Global: 0.058 (not hard to guess; coldest since 1985; 3rd coldest since 1979)

Sea NH: 0.200 (only 0.003 warmer than the coldest value this century)
Sea SH: 0.027 (coldest since 1986; 3rd coldest since 1980)
Sea Global: 0.114 (3rd coldest since 1991)

TWO ISSUES I WILL NOT DISCUSS HERE: (a) the meaning of using 3 decimal digits; (b) the meaning of obtaining a Global sea-surface temperature value simply as the arithmetic mean of Northern’s and Southern Hemisphere’s

=====

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I) we have seen that 2007’s yearly temperature averages have been among the top-11 ever but broke no record.

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II) the 2007 monthly temperature averages are shown as having broken only one record (January’s, for Land/Northern Hemisphere), with rankings getting higher and higher over the year reaching as much as #34 for December/Sea surface/Southern Hemisphere).

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III) a plot of the yearly temperature averages’ rankings shows a clustering of warm years in the past couple of decades, although most graphs have a “capped” shape suggesting the maximum values have already been reached, at least for now. The steepest gradient in terms of rankings is by the way between 1910 and 1938, again suggesting we may be experiencing just the upper end of a temperature peak. Finally, graphs are much similar intra-then inter-hemispheric (Land NH looks much more like Sea NH than Land SH).

In HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV), the analysis moves a step further by comparing seasons. Correlations can be divided in three groups: Land/Sea, same hemisphere (between 80% and 98.6%, in all seasons); Season-to-following-Season (between 71% and 80.5%, land/sea, all hemispheres); and Season-to-Season (between 64.5% and 78.8%). In other words, there is a much weaker link between the ranking of, say, Northern and Southern Hemisphere Land Spring temperatures (intra-seasonal), than between the ranking of, say, Northern Land and Sea Spring temperatures (intra-hemispheric).

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The last result does not look obviously compatible with the theory that world-wide warming  has been caused by CO2 and other so-called greenhouse gases. If that were true, the intra-seasonal correlations would be higher, as CO2 concentration has a strong seasonal component: instead, they are generally even lower than the link between, say, Winter temperatures to Spring temperatures.

The main variable to factor is in all evidence the hemisphere. Now, what can have an effect on sea and land temperatures all over a hemisphere, and in a different way all over the other hemisphere? First hypotheses could be the Sun, via some kind of different coupling with the Northern and Southern terrestrial hemispheres; or changes in land use, that do not have the same impact on land-rich NH compared to ocean-rich SH.

Climatology would be a very exciting science indeed, had it not been hijacked by people on a mission to save the world based on inexact data.

HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

This is the fourth posting in a series analyzing the information that can be obtained from the available HadCRUT data, recently updated to December 2007.

As in the previous blogs, the focus is on rank analysis, since it is widely claimed that global warming can be discerned by the fact that most of the warmest years have occurred very recently.

It is actually possible to obtain a rough indication on what is behind the recorded warming in the HadCRUT data by going one step below the usual globe-averaged, year-averaged figures.

(a) A strong hemispheric component is already visible in the yearly averages of the month-by-month ranks:

Note how for example SST/Southern-hemisphere is much more similar to Land/Southern-Hemisphere than to SST/Northern-hemisphere.

(b) Similar considerations apply at a seasonal level. See the graphs for the January-March period:

Obviously the Jan-Mar period is Southern Summer and Northern Winter. Let’s have a look at the Summer-to-Summer plots then:

I have computed the same graphs for all quarters, and for all seasons.

(c) It always looks more important to be in the same hemisphere, rather than in the same season or the same surface.

But visual inspection may be misleading, so a good round of correlations is in order (for the sake of clarity, the full list is at the end of this entry). These are the results:

(d) Correlation is highest intra-hemispherically (that is, when, say, the Northern Hemisphere’s land temperatures have placed near the top ranks, the NH sea-surface temperatures too have done the same) with a maximum of 98.6% (Southern Hemisphere, local Autumn) and a minimum of around 80% (Northern Hemisphere, local Winter).

(e) Same-season correlations are among the lowest, with a maximum of 74.5% (Spring) and a minimum of 68.8% (Summer).

(f) Among all the season-to-following-season correlations, the lowest values belong to the Oct_Dec-Jan_Mar periods (between 71% for Land, Northern Hemisphere and 80.5% for Land, Southern Emisphere).

(g) There is little, or perhaps even none, appreciable difference between Land and Sea-surface results

Conclusions and working hypotheses for the future will be discussed in next blog in the series.

Correlations

SH SST/Land (V3)
Jan_Mar: 98.40%
Apr_Jun: 98.58%
Jul_Sep: 98.17%
Oct_Dec: 98.28%

NH SST/LAND (V3)
Jan_Mar: 80.89%
Apr_Jun: 93.32%
Jul_Sep: 95.71%
Oct_Dec: 88.70%

SST NH
Jan_Mar/Apr_Jun: 89.06%
Apr_Jun/Jul_Sep: 89.17%
Jul_Sep/Oct_Dec: 90.54%
Jan_Mar/Oct_Dec: 73.89%
Jan_Mar/Jul_Sep: 76.04%
Apr_Jun/Oct_Dec: 83.51%

SST SH
Jan_Mar/Apr_Jun: 89.42%
Apr_Jun/Jul_Sep: 91.10%
Jul_Sep/Oct_Dec: 90.55%
Jan_Mar/Oct_Dec: 75.05%
Jan_Mar/Jul_Sep: 81.82%
Apr_Jun/Oct_Dec: 84.84%

Land NH
Jan_Mar/Apr_Jun: 80.78%
Apr_Jun/Jul_Sep: 88.93%
Jul_Sep/Oct_Dec: 85.48%
Jan_Mar/Oct_Dec: 70.99%
Jan_Mar/Jul_Sep: 74.35%
Apr_Jun/Oct_Dec: 79.26%

Land SH
Jan_Mar/Apr_Jun: 92.07%
Apr_Jun/Jul_Sep: 92.39%
Jul_Sep/Oct_Dec: 92.30%
Jan_Mar/Oct_Dec: 80.51%
Jan_Mar/Jul_Sep: 86.31%
Apr_Jun/Oct_Dec: 87.80%

SST Seasonal NH/SH
Winter: 73.52%
Spring: 74.47%
Summer: 68.76%
Autumn: 73.08%

Land Seasonal NH/SH
Winter: 75.87%
Summer: 71.33%
Spring: 78.98%
Autumn: 75.93%

SST NH/SH
Jan_Mar: 75.03%
Apr_Jun: 79.00%
Jul_Sep: 77.68%
Oct_Dec: 76.93%

Land NH/SH
Jan_Mar : 75.95%
Apr_Jun: 82.84%
Jul_Sep: 77.33%
Oct_Dec: 77.41%:

HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

Let’s have a look now at the graphs for yearly averages, ranked from #0 (coldest) to #157 (warmest) for the period 1850-2007. Source is once again the HadCRUT data.

We are looking for trends, so instead of simply taking the published average temperatures for the year, I have averaged the monthly ranking for each year taken into consideration. There is anyway no considerable difference between the results of the two approaches.

Figure 1 above shows the rankings for the whole period. Things to note:

(a) There is a clustering of warmer years during the past 20 years or so. This does suggest an overall warming. Taking the HadCRUT data for good (otherwise there would be no point examining them), it is also possible to say that the “warmest X years happened within the past Y years”.

(b) The steepest gradient IN TERMS OF RANKING  is by far between the cold years around 1910 and the warm years around 1938.

(c) All the graphs end up with a “cap”

To investigate point (c), Figure 2 above shows the rankings for the past 10 years. Things to note:

(d) Only Land/Northern-Hemisphere gives any indication of continuous warming to date.

(e) Temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere have not been warming on a decadal scale.

I have been notoriously bad at making predictions but on the basis of figures 1 and 2 it is plausible that at least for now, and at least everywhere but on Land/Northern-Hemisphere, temperatures have reached a high and may not increase further.

HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

The following contains a list of warmest/coldest year, by data set and by month, plus the ranking for 2007 (where #1=warmest).

Among the values to note :

(a) The year 2007 has seen the warmest month of January since 1850 for Land/Northern Hemisphere and Land/Global. It also ranked second warmest for Sea-surface/Northern Hemisphere in January and February.

(b) For Sea-surface/Southern Hemisphere, November 2007 has been the 29th warmest, and December 2007 the 34th warmest. That is, they were quite cool compared to the maximum values, achieved in both cases in 1997. The same can be said for Sea-surface/Global, ranked #20 in December 2007.

(c) In 2007, Land/Southern Hemisphere temperatures ranked #19 (August), #23 (November) and #33 (December)

MONTHLY TEMPERATURES

Sea-surface Northern Emisphere
January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #2

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #2

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1864
2007: #4

April
Warmest: 1878, 2004
Coldest: 1911
2007: #6

May
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1910
2007: #8

June
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1858
2007: #10

July
Warmest: 1868
Coldest: 1863
2007: #9

August
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1862
2007: #8

September
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1858
2007: #6

October
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1863
2007: #10

November
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1863
2007: #14

December
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1862
2007: #13

Sea-surface Southern Emisphere

January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1852
2007: #7

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #8

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #9

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #11

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #10

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #6

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #7

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #16

September
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1911
2007: #10

October
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1903
2007: #16

November
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #29

December
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #34

Sea-surface Global

January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1864
2007: #4

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #4

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1850
2007: #7

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #8

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #8

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #7

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1857
2007: #9

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #10

September
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1859
2007: #9

October
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1903
2007: #10

November
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #17

December
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1862
2007: #20

Land Northern Emisphere

January
Warmest: 2007
Coldest: 1893
2007: #1

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #6

March
Warmest: 1990
Coldest: 1867
2007: #4

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1884
2007: #3

May
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1866
2007: #3

June
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1913
2007: #5

July
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1913
2007: #7

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1912
2007: #5

September
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1912
2007: #5

October
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1864
2007: #6

November
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1862
2007: #7

December
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1870
2007: #10

Land Southern Emisphere

January
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1864
2007: #8

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #7

March
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1850
2007: #9

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #8

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1858
2007: #10

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #11

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1909
2007: #11

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #19

September
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1911
2007: #7

October
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1903
2007: #11

November
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #23

December
Warmest: 1997
Coldest: 1910
2007: #33

Land Global

January
Warmest: 2007
Coldest: 1893
2007: #1

February
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #5

March
Warmest: 2002
Coldest: 1917
2007: #7

April
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
2007: #4

May
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1861
2007: #6

June
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1907
2007: #7

July
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1909
2007: #7

August
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1862
2007: #9

September
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1859
2007: #8

October
Warmest: 2003
Coldest: 1864
2007: #9

November
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1862
2007: #11

December
Warmest: 2006
Coldest: 1892
2007: #15

HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)

Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (I)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (II)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (III)
Click here for HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (IV)
Click here for Results of HadCRUT Data Rank Analysis (V)

PLEASE LOOK AT POST (V) FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS

=============

Finally the HadCRUT data for the whole of 2007 have been published.

As we have been told time and again that the world has been the warmest most recently, I have conducted a rank analysis on those values.

Three things of note for now:

(a) The year 2007 has been the coolest this century in most data sets, apart from Sea-Surface Northern Emisphere (second coolest) and Land Northern Emisphere (third warmest)

(b) In all data sets, there has been considerable cooling in November and December (and partly, in October 2007)

(c) Sea-surface Southern Emisphere temperatures in December 2007 have been the coolest since December 1995

There is more to the HadCRUT data and I shall return to this shortly.

Here the first results:

(1) In terms of YEARLY TEMPERATURE AVERAGES:

Sea-surface Northern Emisphere
Warmest: 2004
Coldest: 1910
#7: 2007

Sea-surface Southern Emisphere
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
#11: 2007

Sea-surface Global
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1910
#9: 2007

Land Northern Emisphere
Warmest: 2005
Coldest: 1862
#4: 2007

Land Southern Emisphere
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
#10: 2007

Land Global
Warmest: 1998
Coldest: 1911
#8: 2007

(2) In terms of INDIVIDUAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES:

Sea-surface Northern Emisphere
Warmest: Jul 1868
Coldest: Feb 1861
#45 Jan 2007
#55 Aug 2007
#57 Feb 2007
#58 Jul 2007
#66 Jun 2007
#70 Sep 2007
#81 Mar 2007
#87 Oct 2007
#95 Apr 2007
#105 May 2007
#144 Dec 2007
#147 Nov 2007

Sea-surface Southern Emisphere
Warmest: Mar 1998
Coldest: May 1858
#61 Feb 2007
#73 Jan 2007
#73 Jul 2007
#88 Jun 2007
#97 Mar 2007
#110 Apr 2007
#131 May 2007
#144 Sep 2007
#205 Aug 2007
#258 Oct 2007
#330 Nov 2007
#426 Dec 2007

Sea-surface Global
Warmest: Aug 1998
Coldest: Feb 1861
#56 Jan 2007
#58 Feb 2007
#63 Jul 2007
#77 Jun 2007
#85 Mar 2007
#93 Sep 2007
#95 Apr 2007
#97 Aug 2007
#104 May 2007
#126 Oct 2007
#195 Nov 2007
#246 Dec 2007

Land Northern Emisphere
Warmest: Jan 2007
Coldest: Jan 1893
#1 Jan 2007
#21 Feb 2007
#33 Apr 2007
#43 Mar 2007
#47 Aug 2007
#62 Jul 2007
#65 May 2007
#67 Sep 2007
#68 Oct 2007
#70 Jun 2007
#103 Nov 2007
#109 Dec 2007

Land Southern Emisphere
#Warmest: Jul 1998
#Coldest: May 1858
#52 Feb 2007
#75 Apr 2007
#78 Jan 2007
#93 Sep 2007
#96 Mar 2007
#110 Jul 2007
#120 Jun 2007
#137 May 2007
#161 Oct 2007
#209 Aug 2007
#297 Nov 2007
#396 Dec 2007

Land Global
Warmest: Feb 1998
Coldest: Jan 1893
#3 Jan 2007
#23 Feb 2007
#42 Apr 2007
#58 Mar 2007
#78 Sep 2007
#82 Jul 2007
#87 Jun 2007
#88 May 2007
#92 Aug 2007
#99 Oct 2007
#144 Nov 2007
#174 Dec 2007

January Warmth Weakens BBC Meteorologist’s Logical Skills

How many times have we been told that “weather” is not “climate”, that a heatwave or a cold front or heavy winds or hurricanes or the lack thereof, can say absolutely nothing about the state of the global climate?

Lo and behold, here comes the BBC’s John Hammond in the current “Monthly Outlook” for the UK:

The predominance of south or southwesterly winds kept temperatures at or above average in many parts in the early days of 2007. This theme looks set to continue for a greater part of the next month.
This comes on the back of recently released figures for 2007, which showed that on a global level 2007 was the seventh warmest on record since 1850.

Should it really be necessary to tell a meteorologist that if local above-average temperatures are due to “south/southwesterly winds” THEN the only way to connect the temperatures to global warming would be by demonstrating a link between those winds, and that warming?

Furthermore: the Hadley Centre has not published yet the final figures for 2007. Data so far show sea-surface temperatures for 2007 to be the 9th on record, globally (the southern oceans have actually recorded in December the coolest value in 13 years).

UPDATE JAN 26: HadCRUT data now available up to December 2007

HadCRUT Data Reveal the World is (Mostly) Cooling

Contrarily to what hastily announced at Bali and acritically repeated in news reports including on the BBC web site, the published HadCRUT data strongly support the notion that warming has stopped, globally.

The month of November 2007 has been:

In terms of global sea-surface temperatures, the 2nd coldest November since 1994, and the coldest month since January 1997.

In terms of southern hemispheric sea-surface temperatures, the 2nd coldest November since 1988, and the coldest month since January 1997.

Regarding northern hemispheric sea-surface temperatures, the 2nd coldest November since 1996, and the 2nd coldest month since March 2001.

In terms of global land temperatures, the 2nd coldest November since 2000, and the coldest month since January 2001.

In terms of southern hemispheric land temperatures, the 2nd coldest November since 1989, and the 2nd coldest month since January 1993.

Regarding northern hemispheric land temperatures, the 2nd coldest November since 2000. and the 11th coldest month since January 2001.

Records broken and almost-broken in most sets, but on the cooling side…is that perhaps why there has been no indication of the above in news releases?