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Perfectly Accurate UK Spring 2011 Weather Forecast
Maurizio’s Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Spring 2011
This covers the months of March, April and May 2011, this will not be updated monthly through the spring given the nature of the computations.
Temperature
3 in 10 chance of a mild start
4 in 10 chance of an average start
3 in 10 chance of a cold start
Precipitation
3 in 10 chance of a wet start
4 in 10 chance of an average start
3 in 10 chance of a dry start
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Categories: AGW, Climate Change, Global Warming, Humor, Omniclimate
Global Warming
I also look at the Farmer’s Almanac. Last Spring I read where it predicted much snow in Montana where I am from and it has been right on.
I didn’t know where else to ask about this article I came across. It is 3 years old but just wondered what you thought of it. I am more inclined to believe our climate change is due to the sun’s activity, so you know where my precepts come from.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2008-02-20-global-cooling_N.htm
So. Probably average but it may be warmer or colder or wetter or drier.
Any way you look at it they have a minimum 60% chance they are wrong, and they call this a winner?!
Clearly an Alice in Wonderland* technique: Ask the MET for a forecast and then think the opposite and you will be right more often than them. Worst case is they predict ‘better’ than ‘average’ weather.
Only reliable MET forcasts are short term when nothing is happening; like the forcasts thoughout summer 1976. Otherwise just follow ‘red sky at night’….
* Or was it ‘Through the Looking Glass’? ;o)
I have a deal for the MET. For only 15 million quid (less than 1/2 price the computer), I will give them a special set of weather forecasting tools. One will forecast temperature, the other precipitation.
1 and 2 will be hot on one, dry on the other, respectively. 3 and 4 will be normal on both. 5 and 6 will cold on one and wet on the other.
Lets roll dem bones!
Such amazing forecasting was once only a dream and thought to be impossible prior to the MET Office spending $37,000,000.00 for their super duper computer.
LOL. Nah, the MET Office has proved that this type of prediction has a flaw. It should read:
3 in 10 chance of a mild start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
3 in 10 chance of a cold start
1 in 10 chance anything could happen because frankly we (MET Office) haven’t got a clue. I mean, we could see 6 feet snow drifts, Noah’s flood or biblical plagues. Just whatever the MET Office predicts, prepare for something else.
Reminds me of that old song “Anything Goes”