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Climate Is Weather When It Is Not Climate, Weather Is Climate When It Is Not Weather. Or Not?

or…”Climate Belief In Disarray”

Front-page article today by Andrew C Revkin on the International Herald Tribune about the problem of “selling” any urgency for warming-stopping CO2 emission cuts to the public in a non-warming planet (now that that concept has been accepted even by the hardest climate integralist).

Parts of what is reported by Revkin is interesting as it appears there is no shortage of scientists providing all sorts of opinions on why the world has not been warming as expected. Trouble is, if the recent 10-year-long set of observations showing “non-warming” cannot be used to falsify AGW, then no 10-year-long set of any observation showing anything can be used to demonstrate AGW either.

Therefore there is no meaning in the just-released climate forecasts by the Met Office talking about “the odds of a 15-year pause” after analysing “how often decades with a neutral trend in global mean temperature occurred in computer modelled climate change simulations” (my emphasis).

In fact, some are fond to say that climate is a 30-year-long average of weather. Well, if that is true, all we should be scientifically able to talk about with any amount of knowledge, is the climate trends for… 1979.

Everything else is (interesting, but just) speculation.

ps Dr Mojib Latif says he “gives about 200 talks to the public, business leaders and officials each year“. There are 365 days, in most years. At what times during the year is then “climate science” studied at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel, Germany? And shall we worry about the absence of private life for AGW scientist-advocates?

pps Shame to Revkin for publishing this absurdist remark by Joe Romm: “We need all the unmuffled warnings we can get“. Why? Because Romm is a known “muffler” himself.

  1. Tenuc
    2010/01/06 at 16:21

    Quite a conundrum, although one could argue that climate is just the aggregate historic record of what the weather has done in the past (30years?) and the only important thing is what we experience at the current moment in time.

    From the perspective of climate history, sudden warming/cooling events, which have lasted for several years, have been a feature of Earth’s climate for the past several hundred years. These changes appear to have a periodicity of around 200y. During the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum these events seem to have coincided with a quiet sun, although the mechanism for why this happens has still not been found.

    So nothing new is happening and panic/over-reaction/taxation/world government are not required. Mankind and most species have survived these events in the past and will survive this next event, should it come to pass.

    Climate is the result of a number of processes which are driven by deterministic chaos. This means that trends provide no information about what the future will bring, and the only real information available is that from looking at the broad impact of climate quasi-cycles.

    1410-1500 cold (Sporer minimum) – Low Solar Activity(LSA?)
    1510-1600 warm – High Solar Activity(HSA?)
    1610-1700 cold (Maunder minimum) – (LSA)
    1710-1800 warm – (HSA)
    1810-1900 cold – (Dalton minimum) – (LSA)
    1910-2000 warm – (HSA)
    2010-2100 (cold???) – (LSA???)

    It is interesting to note that within these cooler or warmer centuries, there are further periods of warmer and cooler climate happening on the decadal scale, and still more surprising perhaps, within each decade the same variance can be seen. Climate is unpredictable at all time-scales.

  1. 2010/01/20 at 14:54
  2. 2009/10/04 at 13:52

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